From evidence to a decision you can review
Our method connects a question about the world to the decision it affects, and keeps the evidence and uncertainty visible along the way.
What this method describes
The organisation loop requires separate service qualification; board work products are planned. Public scenarios and the calibration ledger demonstrate their own scope; each assessment needs its own evidence of readiness.
A continuous review cycle
Begin with the decision
Name the objective, the decision owner and the time horizon. Set out the dependencies that matter and the gaps in what is known.
Separate evidence from assumptions
Keep sources, dates and uncertainty alongside the assessment. An assumption stays visible as an assumption; missing evidence stays a gap to investigate.
Describe possible outcomes
Frame a question and its horizon, then examine the drivers and alternative paths. Read an estimate with its uncertainty, supporting evidence and conditions for revision.
Connect drivers to consequences
Relate external change to the organisation’s dependencies and the consequences for revenue, cost, cash or continuity. Keep unsupported consequences open for investigation.
Record the choice and its review conditions
A decision review should name the owner, the assumptions behind the choice and the conditions that would change it. Follow-up asks what was implemented and what risk remains.
Review against what happened
Compare eligible forecasts with recorded outcomes at their stated horizon. Inspect the public ledger for available scores and non-results; assess performance with the cohort size, cutoff and comparison basis.
Terms
Horizon scanning is a planned capability. These definitions fix its vocabulary in advance; none of them describes a service running today.
- Horizon scanning
- Proactive scanning for what an organisation has not named, run against its risk map or risk-factor map as the baseline. It produces proposals to change what is tracked. (planned)
- Horizon scanning loop
- The protocol a scan follows: baseline, scan, assess, propose, decide, re-scope, review. (planned)
- Emerging issue
- A cluster of signals that the accepted baseline does not cover, graded by its distance to the organisation’s dependencies.
- Set aside, with reasons
- A triaged issue that is not pursued. It stays visible with the reason it was set aside.
- What the scan treats as known
- The accepted baseline a scan is measured against.
Inspect the evidence for yourself
A probability is read with its horizon and assumptions. A performance claim requires resolved observations and a stated comparison. Investor outputs remain scenario data; investment decisions and execution belong to the client.