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Foresight and decision-making under uncertainty

Corporate Risk Intelligence

See what could change your business. Decide what to do next.

For boards, executive teams and the risk, strategy and finance functions that brief them.

What you receive

Two services and the record that ties them to your decisions.

Service

Continuous Risk Anticipation

The questions that could move your earnings, kept under review between meetings and connected to your exposures.

You receive the operating update at the cadence you choose, and the Board brief before each meeting or decision.

Service

Strategic Foresight Challenge

One decision challenged before you commit: how suppliers, competitors, regulators and markets could move.

You receive a wargame readout with the options, the counter-case and the signposts that would change the answer.

With both

The decision record

Every decision dated, with an owner, the assumptions it rests on and the date it will be reviewed.

You receive a record your next Board, and your auditors, can read.

A brief for every level

  • Operating teams: What moved, what it touches, who acts.
  • Executive management: The exposure in earnings, the options, the counter-case.
  • Board: The decision for review, three figures, the question to ask.

Strategic Foresight Challenge

Think the unthinkable. Then put your strategy to the test.

A focused Board or CXO engagement to explore unexpected futures, rehearse responses and decide what would change your course.

  1. Frame the decision

    Before the session, agree the strategic choice, assumptions, financial baseline and information gaps.

  2. Challenge the future

    Compare a central case with supported alternatives. Explore how competitors, suppliers, customers or governments might respond.

  3. Stress the choices

    Use appropriate what-if, counterfactual and simulation methods within the agreed scope. Examine costs, feasibility and reversibility.

  4. Commit to watching

    Record response options, owners, unresolved questions and signposts that return to continuous anticipation.

Who participates

A Board or executive sponsor, the accountable strategy or risk owner, Finance, relevant operating leaders and agreed specialist perspectives. Preparation matters as much as the retreat.

What leaves the room

A concise decision brief, challenged assumptions, competing mechanisms, financial sensitivities, response options and monitoring commitments. Preserve useful dissent as well as the agreed next steps.

Proof

The sample Board brief, on the page. Read it before you talk to anyone.

Sample Board brief · October 2026

Should we prepare an alternative supply option?

A prolonged disruption to a critical shipping route could reduce sales and earnings. Management asks the Board to approve validating an alternative supply option, and its cost, before committing funds.

Revenue exposed
US$10m
Earnings exposed
US$4m
Residual, after the response
US$2.5m
Earnings bridge · US$ million · 12 months
MeasurePlanStressWith response
Revenue1009092.5
Associated operating costs807474
Response cost001
Earnings201617.5
Shortfall against plan042.5

Sample on an assumed plan, with no client data. The review threshold is US$3m: the stress exceeds it; the response brings it below.

The Casebook

Hormuz, month eight: who hedged the reopening?

A Board brief in context: the question, the counter-case, two tables on one basis and the decision record.

Working with us

You can stop after any step.

  1. Week 0

    A 30-minute scoping call

    We agree the one decision or question that matters and how you judge it today.

  2. Weeks 1–4

    A four-week capped pilot on one decision

    Measured against your current process, with the cost agreed before it starts.

  3. Then

    Recurring coverage at the cadence you choose

    Monthly, quarterly or before each Board, extended to the questions you add.

Scoped with you from the pilot’s evidence. Work is quoted in platform credits and agreed before it runs.

Talk to us

Tell us the decision in front of you. We will propose a 30-minute scoping call.