Scenarios & Signals
Maintained questions with a house probability, set against the market, and the dissent written down.
You receive the House-vs-Market note and the Minority Report on each question you follow.
See what could change the investment case.
For CIOs, macro and event-driven desks, credit analysts and research teams. No portfolio data needed to start.
What you receive
Two services and the record that lets you score them.
Investment Thesis Challenge
One thesis challenged before you size it: the assumptions it rests on and the evidence on each side.
You receive a teardown readout with the load-bearing assumptions, the counter-case and the signposts to watch.
The research ledger
Every call dated, with its information cutoff, its revisions and its score when the question resolves.
You receive a record your investment committee can audit.
A brief for every level
- Analysts: What moved, the evidence, the competing explanation.
- Portfolio managers: House against market, the gap and what would close it.
- Investment committee: The thesis, the counter-case, the signposts to watch.
Find what could break your investment thesis.
A focused research teardown or investment wargame. Challenge false premises, hidden consensus and adaptive responses—then decide which evidence deserves attention next.
Illustrative thesis
Persistent inflation keeps financing costs elevated and pressures a rate-sensitive issuer’s earnings.
- Does the release actually show persistence?
- Does policy respond as assumed?
- Can refinancing, pricing or hedging buffer the issuer?
- How much of the thesis is already reflected in expectations?
What the engagement returns
A thesis map, material assumptions, comparable House/Market views, a substantive countercase, conditional issuer transmission, supported sensitivities and a ranked research agenda.
Agree falsification conditions, information gaps and signposts for continuing coverage. Investment selection, sizing, portfolio construction and execution remain with the client.
What if policy responds to weakening demand?
Explore a response focused on activity rather than the headline print. Which observations would make that response credible, and how would it alter the thesis?
What if the issuer changes its financing or pricing?
Examine fixed-rate debt, refinancing timing, substitution and price adjustments. Test the cost and timing of adaptation before assuming a direct earnings hit.
What if customers adapt before the company does?
Consider demand substitution, delayed purchases or renegotiation. Could the company’s planned response amplify the original pressure rather than absorb it?
Proof
The sample House-vs-Market note, on the page.
September inflation at or above 3.3% in economy A
- 44%
- 30%
- 14 pts
A 14-point difference to investigate.
| Threshold | 3.3% |
|---|---|
| House median | 3.2% |
| Consensus | 3.0% |
The same uncertainty, a different question
Whether Brent ends the year above US$90, and what an attention index misses about lasting cost.
Working with us
You can stop after any step.
A 30-minute scoping call
We agree the one research question that matters and how your desk answers it today.
A four-week capped pilot on one question
Measured against your current process, with the cost agreed before it starts.
Recurring coverage at the cadence you choose
Delivered in your research pack, your desk tools or by API.
Scoped with you from the pilot’s evidence. Work is quoted in platform credits and agreed before it runs.
Talk to us
Tell us the question your desk is working on. We will propose a 30-minute scoping call.